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Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.

That is the message from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Establishments Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."

Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion

The team have analysed the political, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to stir debate on the topic with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What concerns everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."

Legal Framework

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.

Lack of Substantive Discussion

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, noted the journalist.

"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in universities but hardly any elected officials or activists want to engage with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the publication, neither author supports unity or the status quo. Both composes two articles that strive for impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.

Discussions range over identity markers, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and encourage discussion.

"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the concept that there may exist good arguments on both sides."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.

Possibility of Referendum

McBride believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will win here and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has has something to gain from the other's arguments."

Appeal for Wider Debate

Westminster should engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."