Day-to-Day Murders in Mexico Drop Thirty-Seven Percent In Claudia Sheinbaum, Per Government Statistics

The average figure of per-day murders monthly in the country has decreased by more than a third since President Claudia Sheinbaum took office, according to new official data. However, security specialists have cautioned that homicide numbers might not point to improved national safety.

Notable Drop in Daily Numbers

Officials reported an mean of close to 55 killings a day in the month of November as opposed to roughly 87 when the President assumed the presidency in the previous September. This announcement was provided by the director of the country’s national public security agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's regular press briefing on Tuesday.

“The figures in killings that have been recorded in these months is very significant,” Sheinbaum remarked, explaining that the previous month the lowest figure of murders were registered for any November in the last decade.

Historical Context and Official Strategy

Intense organized crime infighting, combined with the administration's highly military operations to confront the cartels, have caused Mexico’s homicide numbers soar in recent times. The figure peaked at a record high of 36,773 homicides in 2020, as reported by the country’s official data office.

That meant Mexico a murder rate over 4x greater than the United States. Since then, killings have been on the decline, dropping to 33,550 in the last calendar year. The President has linked her public safety strategy for an ostensibly more pronounced decline in killings in the current year.

At a news briefing in August, the Mexican leader stated: “There is a plan, we have oversight of the strategy, and we have detailed tracking town by town in some cases. The approach works. And we have to keep working at it daily.”

The key elements of Sheinbaum’s safety strategy encompass:

• Bolstering Mexico’s national guard.
• Advancing information gathering and investigation work.
• Greater coordination between government departments.

Expert Warnings and Statistical Concerns

But, security experts urged caution that focusing solely on murder data to assess the situation of peace was flawed. This is especially true considering the rise in other criminal activities such as abductions.

“This would be very good information if this were a reduction, but I think we shouldn't just look at the murder numbers and say: ‘Alright, excellent,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexican cartels. “I would be guardedly optimistic.”

As reported by the policy analysis thinktank Mexico Evalúa, killings overall dropped by over 20% in the initial 10 months of the current year versus the identical period the previous year. Yet, missing persons cases have increased by 15% and in some states have increased by as much as 200%.

“Data on homicides is not reliable for assessing the reality of insecurity,” said Armando Vargas, a safety analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have police and investigators who lack the resources or the inclination to properly identify and categorize bodies. Secondly, organized [criminals] … have the capability to mask violent acts through disappearances.”

Vargas pointed out that relying on monthly means of everyday homicides was additionally concerning because it might obscure periods when there were particularly spiking levels of killings.

“Employing the daily mean renders high peaks of violent crime invisible,” he stated.

Detentions and Confiscations as Metrics of Progress

Where the government can point to the success of its security strategy is on detentions and confiscations. Almost 40,000 suspects were arrested between October 2024 and this past November for major crimes, according to official data. Over 20,000 weapons were taken and 311 tonnes of narcotics seized.

“Trump cannot accuse President Sheinbaum of not acting, because actually she is accomplishing a lot with these thousands of arrests, many thousands of confiscations, and all the operational weakening of organised crime. It’s extremely in political terms profitable,” commented Vargas.

Ongoing Violence and Societal Frustration

But in spite of these measures, Mexico continues to be plagued by high bloodshed, with multiple regions in the midst of cartel-related conflict. In the previous month there was a prominent assassination of a popular local official in the region of Michoacan, one of 10 local leaders killed in the past year.

Weeks after, thousands of youth took to the streets in the capital and across the country to express their frustration at corruption and drug violence.

“The government shares [data] in a manner to build a narrative of improvement. From a political standpoint it’s highly potent, from a social perspective it’s extremely problematic,” the analyst concluded.