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Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension sparked by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action

The succession of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: optimistic declarations are issued from multiple capitals. Significant resources is expended on restraining particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "settlement".

After-Dark Attacks

As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from Russian territory, a capacity afforded by timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been dispatched to counter approaching cruise missiles streaked across the sky – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.

Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense activated: several firings deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely delivered by partner states. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly transforms into grim resignation: perhaps the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from devastation and further power outages.

Ongoing Risks

Soon after, a automatic firearm engaged a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a defensive team – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its objective.

Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: several casualties, damage and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a dependence that regional partners are demonstrably unable to substitute in the immediate future.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The detailed framework from Washington sparked intense emotion, debate and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.

Every new initiative from US leadership adheres to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, no doubt, endure.

Strategic Calculations

It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership works based on a assumption well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration believes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to abandon the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does little to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the situation will not change more in its advantage in the months ahead.

Conflicting Perspectives

Therefore, Moscow is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the outcome.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing lives and land but preventing a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its benefit.

Current Realities

Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be much harder after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.

These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.

Summary and Prospects

It took a only one week to terminate the 28 points of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.

While new initiatives based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on continued Western support.