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At first, the former US president appeared to embrace a resolute approach concerning Ukraine. Following delivering warnings of "serious repercussions" in August in case Russia's president persisted blocking ceasefire discussions, the former president eventually enacted major penalties on the Russian primary energy firms, Lukoil and Rosneft. This action significantly impacted the Russian leader's capacity to support his war effort in the region.

But, with his newly presented detailed peace initiative for the conflict, reportedly developed by both nations' diplomats excluding Ukraine's or EU input, the former president has seemingly returned to his favorable to Russia approach.

Rewarding Military Action

Trump's initiative would in practice benefit the Russian leader for attacking Ukraine while placing the country's democracy in peril. Despite bold declarations that "Ukraine's independence will be affirmed", significant aspects of the plan in reality compromise that same independence. Seen as a Moscow's wish would probably be a catastrophe for the nation.

Demonstrating his business experience, the former president continues to treat the war as a mere territorial dispute, as if giving Russia a section of Ukrainian soil will appease the leader. Yet, Russia's war is not only about controlling a damaged area of deindustrialized land in eastern Ukraine. It is about the nation's political system – and the Russian leader's clear intention to weaken it so it no longer functions as an appealing example for the Russian citizens of the accountable government that his deepening authoritarian rule prevents them.

Land Giveaways

Although maintaining in status the presently separated regions of these areas, Trump's plan would force the nation to give up the whole this eastern territory. Aside from benefiting Russia with area that its military have been unsuccessful to seize in over a ten years of warfare, this surrender would leave Ukrainian military defenses severely undermined.

This region is the place of Ukraine's highly-touted "stronghold system", the fortified defensive positions that are a essential impediment to enemy progress. The proposal would have the Ukrainian military abandon these positions, providing Putin a open path to Kyiv in case he eventually choose to restart the war.

Defense Limitations

Furthermore, in a action that would make renewed conflict easier for the Russian military, the plan would force Ukraine to cut the scale of its troops from their present large number troops to a cap of this lower number. Importantly, the initiative sets no such limits on the invading army.

In what appears as a concession to Putin's efforts to characterize Ukraine's democratically elected administration as Nazis, Trump's proposal declares: "All radical ideology and actions must be condemned and forbidden." Apparently to highlight this point, it requires that "The nation will hold political contests in this period" of a truce. Meanwhile, the proposal imposes no requirement that the Russian leader endanger his authoritarian rule by holding elections in Russia.

Security Commitments

Admittedly, the plan includes Russia promise not to "invade neighboring countries" and to "establish in regulation its policy of non-aggression towards the EU and Ukraine". But given that Putin has breached comparable agreements in the past – such as the Budapest accord, in which the Russian government committed to respect Ukraine's borders in return for relinquishing its Soviet-era nuclear arsenal, and the 2014-2015 Minsk agreements, in which Moscow committed to a halt in fighting and a restoration of occupied areas in eastern Ukraine to Ukrainian control – why should we believe Russia now?

For this reason Ukraine has been so adamant on international defense commitments. Although the initiative threatens a "decisive joint military response" in case the Russian Federation renew its invasion, and includes that "The nation will receive dependable protection assurances", the details vary from unclear to alarming. The plan would not just deny the nation accession to NATO but also preclude Nato members from positioning military personnel on the nation's land, thus preventing the security presence, presumptively led by Britain and France, on which the Ukrainian government had been depending to deter Putin from restoring his diminished military, restocking, and resuming aggression.

International Reaction

An additional parallel deal according to sources would grant Ukraine with a similar to NATO defense commitment, in which any subsequent "major, intentional, and sustained military assault" by the Russian Federation on Ukraine "shall be regarded as an assault endangering the stability and safety of the transatlantic community." This implies a defense action. Yet different from a powerful Ukraine's armed forces – Ukraine's primary deterrent against future Russian aggression – the success of the supplementary deal would hinge on the commitment of Western powers, such as the US administration, to respond through arms to Putin's hostilities, something they have {not